Contact matters: the importance of local campaigning in elections

Using data from the 2011 Welsh Election Study, Ron Johnston, Charles Pattie, Roger Scully and David Cutts investigate the efficacy of get-out-the-vote campaigns and demonstrate that, in the case of Welsh Assembly elections, those contacted were more likely to vote for the party again in 2011 than those who were not contacted.

In the 1950s-1970s it was the conventional wisdom in British electoral studies that local campaigning was largely irrelevant and ineffective. Those were the days when turnout was high and most voters were strongly committed to one of the two main parties; they didn’t need to be told there was an election coming and what the parties’ candidates stood for. Things are much different now: turnout is lower, some people are less interested in electoral politics, and most are much less likely to identify closely with a party. Hence they need to be informed about the election and encouraged to vote – especially in the all-important marginal constituencies.

The parties realised this – and so did the political analysts. But what is the best way of identifying potential supporters and ensuring that they turn out and support you. Analyses of survey data have suggested that personal, face-to-face, contact is the most effective, perhaps backed up with leaflets. Our latest study, of the 2011 Welsh Assembly elections, published in Politics, has sustained this. It shows that among those who supported one of the four main parties in the constituency contests at the 2007 election, those contacted by that party during the 2011 campaign were much more likely to vote for it again than were those who were ignored – and the most active of the parties (Labour) was also able, through contact, to win over some support among those who voted for one of its opponents last time.

Contact matters – people like to be asked to vote for a party again, and respond accordingly. The parties know this, hence the great emphasis being placed on contact with potential voters during the 2015 general election campaign – such as Labour’s proposed 4 million conversations between January and May. Money will help, but research shows very clearly that in an age of wide disinterest in and disillusion from electoral politics and politicians contacting electors helps to deliver the vote.

Ron Johnston, Charles Pattie, Roger Scully and David Cutts

Ron Johnston, Charles Pattie, Roger Scully and David Cutts

Ron Johnston is a Professor in the School of Geographical Sciences at the University of Bristol (r.johnston@bristol.ac.uk); Charles Pattie is a Professor in the Department of Geography at the University of Sheffield (c.pattie@sheffield.ac.uk); Roger Scully is a Professor of Political Science in the Wales Governance Centre at Cardiff University (scullyrm@cardiff.ac.uk); David Cutts is a Reader in Political Science in the Department of Politics, Languages and International Studies at theUniversity of Bath (d.j.cutts@bath.ac.uk)

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