Public support for military action plays an important role in defence and foreign policy, from establishing the political legitimacy of missions to maintaining military effectiveness and helping justify defence budgets. Since the UK’s involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan, there has been widespread debate about what the British public thinks of these missions. Robust academic evidence on these opinions is lacking, with most available data resulting from opinion polls, with questions regarding representativeness.
To provide answers to these questions, we used data from over 3,000 people from the 2011 British Social Attitudes (BSA) survey, an annual survey of public attitudes across a range of policy areas using a representative sample of adults aged 18 years and over from England, Scotland and Wales.
Given that our earlier research has shown British public opinion of both the Iraq and Afghanistan missions to be largely negative, it is perhaps not surprising that public perceptions of the missions’ successes were also low, although Afghanistan was seen as more successful. This difference in the perceived successes of the missions has been seen in other countries and seems to be related to the justifications and circumstances of the two campaigns.
The public appeared to be somewhat cynical about the motives of the missions, particularly regarding Iraq, with “ensuring Western oil supplies” the mostly commonly cited reason for UK involvement. Doubts about Iraq appear to have influenced opinions about Afghanistan; gaining access to oil and mineral resources was a commonly given reason for UK involvement despite never being mentioned in any official capacity.
Even with similar levels of public interest and access to information about the progress of these missions, we found less than a quarter of the public could accurately estimate the number of UK military fatalities. There were also differences in estimation between the missions, although it is not clear why. While it could be explained by a lack of interest in the campaigns or a simple conflation of the outcomes of two missions occurring within a similar timeframe, public estimates differed according to levels of support for the missions and perceptions regarding UK involvement. This suggests that opinions of the missions may influence how people estimate the costs involved, including the lives of Service personnel.
Our findings suggest a negative picture of British public opinion regarding the recent missions in Iraq and Afghanistan; support for the missions is low, their perceived success is poor and there is evidence of cynicism regarding the motives in Iraq. If these uncertainties and suspicions become commonplace, there may be implications for the viability of UK involvement in future missions, including NATO or UN campaigns. Whether such views do influence public support for proposed missions may need to be considered in future communications with the public regarding military action.
